STI overview

It is really an unexpected 2 weeks for STI to break resistance after resistance to a new high. While our minister was cautioning us of a W shape recovery, at least till now, it’s been shown a V. V for victory for those who has stayed throughout from March.

This period is also a challenging since there’s a few whipsaw here and there. But the market tone is very positive as shown by the negative news of Abu Dhabi did not have any effect at all! This is something I learn (from books) that a bearish news on a uptrending market will have negligible effect. The same for opposite.

Will the capricorn effect take place? We will only know on Jan. But given the current situation, I will definitely place my bet that it will happen. But hor, since everyone is expecting that, there is a possibilities it might not happen.

Think about it…. somewhere in may… there’s a saying

That’s right. Sell in May and go away. How many people do that and ended regretting it for a long long time to come.

Next year will be a important year since we are near the 2008 peak. 3000 points seems to be fairly reachable.

I’m fairly disturbed by the dropping volume in the market for the recent rally. At the same time, I question does the stock price reflect the fundamental of the economy when everything is so uncertain?

SG Stock Market: Property Leader Analysis

CityDev
Sideway
Support: 9.60
Resistance: 10.40
Bollinger band squeeze.
MFI, RSI, MACD pointing downwards

Capitaland
Downtrend
Support: 3.40, 3.65
Resistance: 3.80, 4
MACD line at 0.

SG Stock Market: Marine Leader Analysis

KepCorp
downtrend
Support: 7.6, 7.2
Resistance: 8, 8.4
Adx: downtrend is weak
MACD: Waiting for divergence to form
RSI, MFI pointing down towards 30%

Sembmar
downtrend
Support: 3, 2.85
Resistance: 3.2, 3.4
ADX is weak, MFI RSI pointing towards 30% for support

Singapore stock sector analysis

Commodity
Uptrend. seems to be turning down. hovering at support
weekly chart: divergence on macd histogram, rsi mfi turning down

Marine
Downtrend. hopefully to get support
adx trendless, mfi rsi below 50%

Property
sideway, macd histogram weekly divergence
rsi, mfi pointing down

Banking
possibly double top
signals for macd, rsi, mfi weakening
waiting for possible support at weekly mfi, rsi
divergence seen at weekly macd histogram

Trident Microsystem - Another China Sky in the making?

Coming across this post on fri midnight. Long this stock base on fundamental reason as stated from the post. Low debt, low density and undervalued. The way Warren Buffet would played.

From the Technical Analysis point of view, Trident Microsystem (TRID) seems to be mirroring China Sky. A stock that has been squeezed by the Bollinger Band for a long time. And it finally moved on Friday night. I expect this stock to start to trend up soon. For me, it’s like a gem in the rough, waiting to be polished.

Tough trading week

It’s a tough trading week. Not much of a movement except penny stock. Blue chip seems overpriced from the look of market volume. Analyst and traders are cautious and this may explain the quiet market.

Sold off Frasercomm with some profit. Wanted to get out of Capitacomm because this stock seems stuck at the symmetrical triangle without any sign of going in either direction. Most stock in STI is showing bearish divergence. A correction may be overdue.

While I hope the market will show more clear signal, I realized it’s a good time to enter Shanghai market due to their drastic correction which finished a few days ago. But it does have a short term gap that needs to overcome.

Looking out for Genting in particular to trade.

Market correction

STI has started correction on wednesday. And quite expected, NDP effect has took place. Seems like everyone knows about it and starts taking profit on Wednesday. There’s a possibility that there will be correction of another 100 points.

Personally, it would be quite tough cos that would be a trend reversal if it hits a lower low. From trend pattern, it might look like a double top. Hopefully the correction will take place since I did not have too much of a position in the market right now. Waiting to bottom fishing Genting and Golden Agri so as to enter at a better risk/reward.

STI trending sideway

It’s difficult time ahead trying to trade because our Straits Times Index is trending sideway + squeezed between 20 and 50 MA. Must be the window dressing period that makes the market so cautious. A lot of the stocks alr showing bearish signal with lower high lower low.

But it’s time to be paitence. Later kernna whipsaw really super sian. Learning the importance to cutloss is one thing. Knowing not to anyhow cutloss is another. It’s all about positioning.

Rumored that the financial report of company will come out next week of so. Waiting for the chart to show unusual movement aka insider trading.

Remember to put money into your CFD account. Do not naked short!

Head and Shoulder

STI has formed head and shoulder. Looking into the property sector like Capitaland, Kepland and CityDev also showing formation of H and S. Banking sector including OCBC, DBS and UOB also forming the same patterns. It’s important to be cautious the next few days since the right shoulder might be forming

A lot of high volume stock are quite penny stock. This also signify another signal for correction in the market especially when it’s at the fibonnaci support level.

Market Reversal

STI has started to form a trend reversal (lower high) for the past 1.5 months. It can be seen with the general sentiment for property and commodity sector. If for the next 1 month, the market is not able to create new high and instead drop below 2200 level, it is likely the bearish mood will take over.

Another weakness is that even though it’s a mini rally but this rally is not companied with high volume, which means it’s all the retail investors pushing the stocks up and not the financial institute. Whether it’s sustainable, it’s really hard to say for now.

Speculators better to stand aside and let the market gives a clearer trend before joining. From my remiser journal, it seems it’s a clear trend to short the stock. Time to put in money to your CFD account. Remember not to naked short!

Bearish mood for STI

It seems like stock market has become bearish for the past 2 days. And for some counters like biosensors, sgx and wing tai is a good time to short. Do not naked short or else you will be fined 100k SGD.

Accompanied by the falling US maket, tomorrow seems destined to close lower.

CFD account has to be created to do shorting. If not you can always buy some put warrant. Limited risk, unlimited reward. For some, it can be another learning curve to be able to trade using warrant.

Another tip to leverage your finance is to put money in poems account, Any spare cash will be in the money market fund, giving you better interest than bank!

Hot stock of the day - CCT

As expected, CapitalCommercial Trust (CCT) will be red hot today. On friday, they announced the news of increase in share issue write to raise fund. It will be a 1 for 1 with 59 cents/stock. It’s at a discounted price as compared to $1.06 as it close on Fri.

CCT started today with a gap up, which is within expectation. Just that the support line at $1.09 is broken down before the market started is quite shocking. Cos I always thought this normally happen in US market. Gapping is a strong signal that the trend will continue for some time, which makes it a good buy for the short term.

Let’s see how it will perform on the second half of the day.